"Best ever year for British tourism" - welcome headlines like this are appearing as overseas visitors return to the UK in 2004. After three turbulent years the tide seems to have turned, occupancy levels are rising and room rates are slowly creeping up. All of us can be forgiven for wanting to put the crises of the past three years out of our minds. Despite foot-and-mouth, war, Sars and terrorism, the tourism industry has survived - happy days are here again.
Of course it isn't that simple. Every management textbook emphasises the importance of reviewing successes or failures and learning lessons from the experience. Yet there doesn't seem to be much appetite for reflection in the travel and tourism industry, so we are missing the opportunity to learn from the past and be better prepared for the future.
The industry learnt some painful lessons about effective lobbying during the foot-and-mouth crisis. At every stage the National Farmers' Union was better organised and had better connections to the Government. This led minister Tessa Jowell to call on the industry to "speak with one voice" and brought about the establishment of the Tourism Alliance.
Terrorism and war brought a new set of problems for tourism businesses: cash-flow difficulties, the need to postpone investment, and pressure to offer discounts and cut costs. Every business needed to take its own decisions, but how much do we know about what worked best? What would we do differently if we had to live through it all again? The tourism industry needs to capture these thoughts now, before memories fade. If we don't, we will be condemned to a Groundhog Day experience of making the same mistakes all over again.
In this uncertain world the next crisis could just as easily be triggered by the weather as by terrorism - witness the devastation in Boscastle. Every business needs its own plans, but it also needs to be part of the tourism community. Every operator should be able to say with confidence that they know how the tourism industry would be represented in a crisis, who would speak on behalf of the industry, and what support was needed from the Government or the local council.
There are other good ideas out there. London business agencies have commissioned a toolkit, called Business as Usual, for tourism businesses. This is full of practical advice and is available free from Business Link for London. My book, Weathering the Storm, takes the reader through the different stages of a crisis and recommends different tactics for each stage. It also reviews international experience and gives some pointers for forecasting the path of recovery.
It would be wonderful to think that we were entering a golden age of trouble-free growth, but just in case we aren't, take some time to reflect on how well prepared you are and start planning.
- Mary Lynch was chief executive of English Tourism for three years. Her new book, Weathering the Storm, is published by Troubador, priced £12.99