World economy to avoid full-blown global recession

Leading economist Roger Bootle doesn’t expect the current troubles in the world economy to lead to a full blown global and US recession.

Professor Bootle, who is managing director of Capital Economics, said that the US economy would experience a slow down in the next few years, but he didn’t expect the world’s largest economy to go in reverse.

He told delegates at the 10th International Hotel Investment Forum in Berlin that US growth would slow to 2% this year, but he believed the Federal Reserve would react by cutting interest rates and avoid a recession.

Bootle added that the future for the Eurozone looked a lot better, for both consumers and business.

“This year and next year growth may be weaker, because of the slow down in the US economy, but the outlook in Europe is good,” he said.

Bootle predicted Spain would be the leading European economy followed by the UK, with Italy the weakest performer.

He also said that a “surge” of immigration to the UK had been good for its economy and he expected that to continue.

“The outlook for the UK’s economy is good, beyond the short term. There will be a slowdown in the UK this year to 2% growth as our economy reacts to the US slowdown.

“But I expect a recovery in the economy in 2008 and the medium-term prospects for the UK economy are extremely good.”

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For more on the conference go to the Editor’s blog >>

For more on the conference and Roger Bottle go to the Caterer blog >>

View Roger Bootle profile here >>

By James Garner

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