Hoteliers at the top end of the market are generally optimistic that the number of high-spending American visitors will start to pick up now that major combat in Iraq is officially over.
But some fear most Americans are still too nervous about travelling, and that a major campaign is needed to woo them here.
London hotel Claridge's - which claims to have suffered less than its peers from the fall in US visitors that started in 2001 with the foot-and-mouth and 11 September crises - has already seen signs of an upswing since Easter.
General manager Christopher Cowdray said US guests - who usually comprise 60% of its clientele - were coming back. The hotel's occupancy last week was 90%, only slightly below normal levels, and Cowdray said this month's bookings were also looking good.
He suspected Britain's role alongside the USA in Iraq would encourage Americans to travel to Britain, rather than France and other parts of Europe.
Paul Henderson, proprietor of three-red-star-rated Gidleigh Park hotel in Chagford, Devon, also expects to see a boost in US visitors in the late summer or early autumn because "overseas travel is planned three to six months in advance". His hotel has turned to UK residents to fill the shortfall in US guests, who have fallen to 12-15% from a norm of 20%.
Hilton shares his expectations for a summer/autumn boost from US visitors, and is already planning a US marketing campaign. Since 2001, Hilton has refocused its marketing on the European leisure and UK short-break markets to fill the gap in US guests, which have proved highly successful. A spokesman said that any upsurge in American guests would not replace this focus, but would boost overall business.
But Patrick Elsmie, operations director at Gleneagles in Auchterarder, Perthshire, was less certain UK hoteliers would see a "great release of pent-up demand" from the USA. He believes the war has had less impact on American travel than the uncertain economy. Bookings from leisure guests have been slower than usual, while corporate customers have been scaling back events rather than cancelling.
June Nelsey, general manager at York's Monkbar hotel, also believes that economic conditions, plus the fact that Americans "are still running a bit scared", will militate against a speedy recovery. She has lost a major conference at the end of May from an American university because "they are too frightened to fly".
Nelsey suspects Americans think Britain is as much at risk from terrorist reprisals as the USA. She will continue to focus on the UK and European leisure business and the meetings market.
Martin Skan, proprietor of the five-red-star-rated Chewton Glen hotel in New Milton, Hampshire, believes the top-end US leisure market will return in appreciable quantities only on the back of a major marketing campaign.
America, he explained, was the only country to provide significant quantities of upmarket leisure guests, who were vital for keeping country house hotels busy during the week. His US occupancy has dropped to 5% from a norm of 20%.
Skan added that a few words from Tony Blair could work wonders in America, where he is more popular than George Bush.
US ups and downs
* VisitBritain anticipates a fairly quick recovery in US travel to the UK. Its North American offices have received increased levels of enquiries over the past few weeks, which it expects to now start feeding through into bookings. A major North American campaign will be launched early next month.
* The record year for US travel was 2000, when 4.09 million visits were made to Britain. This included 3.12 million leisure trips and 969,000 business trips.
* Visits from the USA fell to 3.58 million in 2001 because of foot-and-mouth and 11 September, but recovered slightly in 2002 to a provisional 3.65 million visits.
* 80,000 trips were made to Britain by North Americans in January and February this year - unchanged on the same months in 2002 and slightly down on the 498,000 trips made in January and February of 2001. Figures for March, when the Iraq war started, will be the most telling.
By Angela Frewin
Source: Caterer & Hotelkeeper magazine, 8 - 14 May 2003