After nearly two years of wondering where all the Americans had gone, hoteliers in the UK say they can see the first signs that the dollar spend is returning. Let's hope they're right. The shortfall in US visitor numbers has been hitting the obvious tourist locations - London, Stratford-upon-Avon, Edinburgh and the like - and virtually everywhere else for too long.
The reasons given for the decline - foot-and-mouth ("don't want to go there"), 11 September ("want to stay at home"), the war in Iraq ("don't want to fly") - have subsided, so we're pretty safe in assuming that the Americans will return, aren't we? Maybe.
Without wishing to pour scepticism on optimism, the fundamental reason why Americans have been reluctant to travel is more to do with the US economy than a fear of flying. Foot-and-mouth, terrorism and war have acted as effective smokescreens to the fact that, in general, Americans are simply less well-off than they were two or three years ago.
The US economy has been hit by the same slow growth as in Europe and Asia; US pension investments have been hit by the same declines in share prices; US leisure spending has been hit by the same "let's-wait-until-things-get-better" attitude of consumers. American visitors will return, fear not. Just don't expect them to rush back immediately. There will be a slow, gradual build-up, nothing sensational.
But if the flood gates don't open overnight, that shouldn't worry operators. The decline, like any recession, has forced hoteliers to look at ways of expanding their businesses to make up for lost custom. Hotels that used to enjoy 70% US occupancy have been forced out of their complacency. They have looked at their offerings and widened their appeal.
In a perverse way, the downturn has been quietly strengthening the industry. When the good times stop rolling, the result is often improved efficiency and increased value for money - and Americans love that.
So, welcome back, Yanks. Good to see y'all. You're gonna find things are better over here than when you last visited.
By Forbes Mutch, Editor, Caterer & Hotelkeeper