Forecasts for the expected recovery in the UK hotel industry are conservative compared with the recovery from previous recessions, according to a study by TRI Hospitality Consulting.
Revenue per available room (revpar) will rise by 7% this year, the same amount next year and 5% in 2006, say the latest forecasts from the consultancy.
TRI has looked at how the industry bounced back from the recession of the early 1990s and suggests that, as a result, existing recovery forecasts may be “conservative”.
The recession of the early 1990s was followed by revpar growth in double figures for three consecutive years, it found.
Revpar declined in 1990, 1991 and 1992 but then began climbing again in 1993 (by 5%) and 1994.
This was followed by double-digit growth in 1995, 1996 and 1997, when revpar grew by 13.3%, 14.6% and 17.8% respectively.
London recovered first in the 1990s, and the same is happening this time round, added TRI.
“The historic evidence gives us confidence that our current projections of steady single-digit uplift in revpar over the next three years starting in 2004 are realistic,” said TRI managing director Jonathan Langston.
by Nic Paton
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