A drawn-out war in Iraq would destroy more than three million jobs in the global travel and tourism industry, according to the World Travel and Tourism Council (WTTC).
Its latest forecasts, released this week at the International Hotel Investment Forum in Berlin, Germany, show that a protracted conflict would lead to a 1.3% fall in the income produced by travel and tourism worldwide next year.
"In the event this worst-case scenario takes place, we will look for immediate and decisive action from governments to protect and secure this vital world industry," said WTTC president Jean-Claude Baumgarten.
But if there was a quick, decisive victory in Iraq, the industry would quickly recover, growing by 1.1% in 2003 and by an average 4.5% a year over the next ten years.
If there is a drawn-out war, the USA would be one of the hardest-hit countries, with income generated by travel and tourism down by 3.7% and 450,000 jobs lost.
In the European Union, income would be down by about 0.7% - a loss of 260,000 jobs.
But in the UK the industry would still grow by 1% and create 11,000 jobs.