The UK coffee shop market is set to nearly double in size over the next decade, new research has predicted. 

Branded coffee chains now have more than 3,000 outlets in the UK, with a turnover of around £1.3b. Having grown at more than 15% annually for the past eight years, the market is set to expand further to 6,000 outlets with estimated turnover of more than £2.5b within seven to10 years, according to consultancy Allegra Strategies.

The market, which has already extended beyond urban centres into smaller towns and provincial areas, is now being taken up by non-specialist players such as Marks & Spencer and motorway stations such as BP’s Wild Bean Café. 

A survey of more than 6,300 people by Allegra Strategies revealed that consumers are visiting branded coffee chains more frequently than ever before and 11 million now visited a coffee shop at least once a week.

Jeffrey Young, managing director of Allegra Strategies, said: “After eight years of consecutive like-for-like growth, a whole new landscape is emerging in the world of coffee – with the market expected to double yet again within the next decade we continue to be surprised by the UK consumer’s demand for coffee bars.”

The report revealed that Starbucks has been usurped by Costa Coffee as the UK’s largest coffee shop operator, with 24.1% (540 stores) compared to 24.7% (555) for the Whitbread-owned chain.

However, Starbucks remains the more recognised chain with 27% of the respondents rating it their favourite, with Costa at 15%. Although Caffè Nero only got 7% recognition, it achieved the highest satisfaction rating from customers.  

Despite the explosion in interest, coffee remains only the nation’s third-favourite non-alcoholic beverage, consumed by 70% of adults, compared with 83% for tea and 81% for fruit juice.

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By Emily Manson

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