Independent pub numbers set to dip

Independent pubs will feel the pinch over the next five years as the market shrinks because of competition, the supermarket alcohol sales boom and the UK-wide smoking ban, experts have predicted.

The UK Public Houses Market Development Report by Market & Business Development estimates that while the number of pubs in the UK will be up marginally to 58,200 this year, a mid-term decline is inevitable, with independents bearing the brunt. MBD forecasts there will be 56,230 pubs operating in the UK by 2011, a decline of 3%.

But consolidation driven by the need for groups to cut costs, which has seen Punch Taverns and Enterprise Inns become the UK's largest landlords, will continue.

By 2011, 56% of pubs - 31,400 - are expected to be group-owned and predominantly operated under lease or tenancy, up from the current level of about three-quarters.

In comparison, independently owned public houses, comprising estates of 30 or fewer, will decline from 30% in 2006 to 29% of the total market in 2011 as they struggle to adapt and compete. The remainder will be brewery-controlled.

However, those that survive should prosper, with average pub annual turnover expected to rise 9% to £304,863 at 2006 prices by 2011.

Food sales are also forecast to achieve real-term growth of 6%, contributing nearly a quarter of pub turnover (23%) and £3.98b at 2006 prices by 2011.

The full report can be purchased at www.mbdltd.co.uk

Bumper year for M&B executives

Mitchells & Butlers chief executive Tim Clarke earned a total of £951,000 in 2006, the company's annual accounts revealed this week. His total package, which rose by £109,000 from £842,000 in 2005 (a 13% increase), comprises a basic salary of £526,000, benefits of £23,000 and an annual bonus of £402,000.

In September the pub, bar and restaurant group, which includes the All Bar One and Harvester brands, reported a 10.8% growth in pre-tax profit on the back of a 5.5% rise in turnover to £1.72b.

Other top earners were Mike Bramley, managing director, pubs and bars - £643,000 (£549,000 in 2005), Tony Hughes, managing director, restaurants - £645,000 (£575,000) and Karim Naffah, financial director - ££677,000 (£595,000).

By Chris Druce

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