Terrorism and the threat of war in Iraq have done little to affect Britain's tourist industry so far this year, claims the British Tourist Authority (BTA), and says it has no plans to change its upbeat 2003 forecast.
Despite last week's high-profile terrorist scares, the organisation had no plans to amend predictions made last December that said inbound visits and spend in 2003 would rise by 3-4% on 2002 figures.
A survey carried out this month by 27 of BTA's overseas offices found that while those travelling to Britain were worried about safety, few cancelled, with some markets reporting no changes. In addition, most operators have no intention of changing marketing strategies until war breaks out.
Sandie Dawe, the BTA's director of communications, said: "This is indicative of the more resilient traveller who bounces back more quickly. There has been a long lead-in to the current situation and in these cases anxiety starts to become the norm. People wait and see for a while but will eventually go ahead and travel."
The predictions were made on the back of BTA's 2002 tourism figures that showed visits up by 6% to 24 million and spend up by 4%, compared with 2001, to almost £12b.
If war does break out, however, a BTA statement warned that tourism to the UK could see a significant slump, particularly from the USA.
The 1991 Gulf War led to a 22% drop in US visitors to Britain and a 30% drop in London. Numbers did not return to their 1990 levels until 1995.
Source: Caterer and Hotelkeeper magazine, 20-26 February 2003