Tourism's global downturn will continue for 18 months after the end of the Iraq conflict, according to a leading European business school.
Joseph Valls, director of the Centre for Tourism Management at the Barcelona-based ESADE Business School, said tourism, travel and accommodation occupancy figures would not reach pre-conflict levels for a further year-and-a-half.
The centre analysed the latest data on world tourism levels and the consequences of the first Gulf war and the 11 September attacks, along with figures published by the World Travel & Tourism Council.
The research showed that the countries most affected by a reduction in demand were France and Spain, with decreases of 3.4% and 3.1% respectively. The UK suffered a 2.1% drop.
Valls said the global tourist industry was more resistant to crisis since the first Gulf war and had developed greater expertise in crisis management, improving quality and adapting staff. But he warned the industry not to embark on wholesale price-cutting and give in to panic.
"Giving in to panic and lowering prices sharply does not in itself lead to recovery in the market. The key to success in any crisis is innovation, plus serious attention to quality and continuous staff training."
* Visit Britain, the renamed agency for tourism into and within Britain, has appointed its first England marketing director. Michael Bedingfield, 41, who is currently head of brand marketing for P&O Cruises, will start work in June.
His first task will be to supervise the roll-out of the £4m domestic marketing campaign. He will also develop a long-term marketing strategy for England and a brand strategy for Britain, Wales, Scotland and England.