Pub predictions for 2009

It is hard to imagine that pubs could suffer a tougher year than they did in 2008, what with consumer spend plummeting as fast as alcohol duty rocketed and the terrible summer weather exacerbating the continued fallout from the smoking ban.

But with all the indications suggesting that the UK is about to enter a recession that will be as long as it is deep, 2009 will be another year to batten down the hatches for pub operators.

Community pubs – those outlets not typically in town centres and main high streets – have been particularly badly hit and the industry has called on the Government to do more to support them, by, for example, clamping down on cheap supermarket booze (which is very unlikely to happen).

The pub sector looks set to have a rough time in the City as well, with analysts becoming increasingly critical of the debt ratio of the big players such as Punch Taverns and Enterprise Inns.

Expect more licensing disputes, with councils being encouraged by the Government to clamp down on “problem premises” and new rules on the sale and promotion of alcohol set to be implemented.

But it is not all doom and gloom out there. Decent pubs serving real beer and good quality value for money food will survive, while high quality food-led pubs will continue to thrive as long as they maintain standards. And it is not all about food – quality drink-led operations can thrive, helped in part by lower running costs.

2008 - Hospitality news review of the year >>

Community pubs collapsing under red-tape and soaring costs >>

Use enforcement powers, licensing minister tells local authorities >>

Punch Taverns reports a slide in sales >>

Be At One bars buck the economic gloom >>

By Daniel Thomas

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